Opendoor's Q1 2023 Earnings Estimate

Written by Tyler Okland

Welcome back team!

Today we share Datadoor's estimate for Opendoor's Q1 2023 operating result (the first of two estimates we will provide for the quarter (our finalized estimates (Vol 2) will be shipped the last week of April, and will include forward analytics).

We also share how many of the Q2 Offer Cohort homes remain on Opendoor's balance sheet at the conclusion of Q1. 

We've made some significant changes to our estimation and data collection methodology for the below estimate, as Opendoor's provided guidance has never before divergerged so materially from their transaction unit economics.

The iBuying model has changed. Zillow and Redfin have both staggered away from the battlefield, bloodied. Opendoor and Offerpad remain standing, but are sacrificing volumes for profits, and accelerate the development of higher-margin, capital-light products. 

We look forward to discussing why these numbers are so different from expectations, and what the implications are for Opendoor moving forward. Thank you for joining us on this wild journey.


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