Opendoor Q3 '23 Earnings Estimate and Volumes Update

Q3 has been a challenging quarter for Opendoor the stock, down 33% since the company reported Q2 earnings on August 3rd. Tepid forward guidance combined with a housing macro cocktail of persistently high mortgage rates and contracting volumes has kept the stock underwater. 

To be fair, Q3 is not a banner quarter for Opendoor. Rather, Q3 is the inflection point between offloading the last of the Q2 Offer Cohort to ramping up volumes back to the holy grail of $10 Billion run rate revenue and adjusted net income break even. 

So much has to go right for this company to get back to favorable unit economics, and that's how I'm thinking about Q3 '23 - Q1 '24. These are the unglamorous but absolutely critical steps that must go right for the company to realize its audacious aspiration to disrupt residential real estate. 

There's much to unpack and dig into under the surface. We'll start with Datadoor's estimates for Opendoor's Q3 2023 operating results: