Opendoor Q3 2024 Earnings Estimate: Vol. 1

Happy Thursday team.

Today we share Datadoor's estimate for Opendoor's Q3 2024 operating result (the first of two estimates we will provide for the quarter (our finalized estimates (Vol 2) will be shipped the last week of October, and will include forward analytics/how the early Q4 data are trending).

It feels like Q3 and Q4 are the last stubborn quarters of Opendoor operating sub-scale. The company has spent the past two years carving away operating expense and growing low-CAC channels. Seasonality (volume, HPA) should improve in early 2025, the recent rate cut may motivate homebuyers to get off the bench and transact. Lower rates also lowers the cost of debt Opendoor uses in its core operations (although at 50 bps this is not an enormous impact, perhaps 15 bps improvement in margin per transaction). The company also appointed a new CFO and CTO/CPO on the first of October.

In my opinion - and I've watched this company in microscopic detail for four years now - 2025 is the 'now, or maybe never' year for Opendoor. 

We will continue to keep you as close as possible to the operating performance, so you know which.