Opendoor Q3-2022 Estimates - Vol. 1

Written by Tyler Okland

Today we share Datadoor’s estimate for Opendoor’s Q3 ‘22 results, the first of two estimates we will provide for the quarter (our finalized estimates (Vol 2) will be shipped the last week of October, and will include forward analytics).  

Over the past two years the residential RE market bubbled up relentlessly, driven by record low rates and inventory levels.

When rates skyrocketed this summer we began finding the floor on home values, more quickly than ever before. Real estate data teams are just beginning to acknowledge what we’ve observed since June – that many metro home values are down 10%+ over a matter of months. Although the driving circumstances are unique, the magnitude and velocity of these price declines are comparable to the Great Financial Crisis.

It's challenging to conceive a more difficult time to be buying and selling homes at scale. That said, the events of Q3 and Q4 '22 allow Opendoor to address a longstanding, nagging chink in the armor of the investment thesis – can the company survive a GFC-like crisis?

Below you will find our estimates for Opendoor's Q3 operating performance. Similar to prior quarters, you will find our estimates look quite different from guidance and consensus estimates. This is part of the reason we believe building Datadoor so important; why we are so committed to bringing data and clarity to the proptech space. The less confusion there is about a company's performance, the better understood and valued these companies become. 

We look forward to discussing why these numbers are so different from expectations, and what the implications are for Opendoor moving forward.

Without further ado...

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