Opendoor reported Q4 2023 earnings a little over a month ago. The most notable excerpt from the call was CEO Carrie Wheeler - in the prepared remarks - stating she did not expect Opendoor to hit her goal of $10 B run-rate revenue for any quarter of 2024.
$10 Billion run-rate revenue isn't just a nice round number; it's the threshold the comany can get to adjusted net income breakeven, and has tremendous implications for the sustainability of the business.
This statement was a blow to the patient supporters of the iBuying space, who remember the company that looked like this not too long ago:
From Q1 2021, Opendoor 5X'd revenue over a period of three quarters. Perhaps most surprising, they scaled this quickly through the seasonally slow second half of the year.
I remember staring at these charts in early 2022, affirming my belief that Opendoor's product found sublime product-market fit. In each of the above quarters Opendoor added >$1 Billion in revenue...Ya know, what Opendoor needs to do from here to get to ANI-run-rate neutral...
But the company has shed almost any resemblance to this growth titan, if the below chart is any measure...
To be fair, Opendor took heavy losses with the growth-at-all-cost approach of the easy money pandemic housing boom. Many employees lost their jobs, all-non core initiatives were scuttled, and the company has spent ~18 months in reset focusing on risk mitigation.
I've been fairly (or unfairly) faithful to Opendoor for a long time now. I've certainly been the loudest. My first article on the company was published In Q2 of 2021, where the first chart starts. I spend a lot of time talking to hedge funds, investors, agents, leaders in proptech, and I can monitor the company in exquisite granularity thanks to Datadoor.
That said, Opendoor cannot have another year that looks like the second chart I posted. Or even close.
Today I will review early numbers for Q1 2024, and whether there's a shot Opendoor can reclaim the identity of the company it used to be.
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